Ugandans under the age of 40 have known only one president: Yoweri Museveni. Since seizing power in 1986 through an armed uprising, Museveni, now 81 years old, shows no signs of relinquishing control. As Uganda prepares for its elections, Museveni seeks a seventh term, inching closer to five decades of rule. While his tenure has been marked by peace and economic development, critics argue that his grip on power comes at the cost of democracy, institutional independence, and political opposition.
A Presidency Built on Stability and Development
Museveni’s presidency has brought significant peace and development to Uganda, and many Ugandans appreciate the country’s growth over the years. Under his leadership, Uganda saw average economic growth of over 6% annually for more than a decade, primary school enrollment doubled, and HIV rates decreased due to a widespread anti-AIDS campaign. Museveni also earned support in the West for his economic reforms and efforts to stabilize the country.
However, despite these accomplishments, his critics claim that Museveni has remained in power by sidelining opposition, suppressing independent institutions, and changing the rules to maintain his dominance.
Abandoning Term Limits and Age Restrictions
Museveni once stated that presidential term limits were unnecessary, famously declaring, “We don’t believe in term limits.” This position was solidified in 2005 when Uganda’s constitution was amended, removing the cap on how many terms a president could serve. By 2017, the age limit for presidential candidates was also eliminated, a move that paved the way for Museveni to rule for life, according to many critics.
From Guerrilla Fighter to President for Life
Museveni’s journey to power began in 1944 in Ankole, Uganda, where he was born into a family of cattle keepers. After Uganda gained independence from Britain, the country was plagued by brutality and instability, particularly under Milton Obote and Idi Amin. Museveni’s rise began in the 1970s when he became involved in efforts to overthrow Amin, eventually helping to oust him with the Tanzanian-backed Front for National Salvation.
In 1981, Museveni’s refusal to accept Obote’s leadership led him to launch a guerrilla struggle, which culminated in the National Resistance Movement (NRM) seizing power in 1986. Museveni then became Uganda’s president, promising reconciliation and economic reforms.
Growing Authoritarianism and the End of Democracy
Despite early promises of democratic reforms, Museveni’s leadership gradually took a more authoritarian turn. He changed the constitution to eliminate term limits, silencing any challenge to his long-term rule. His opposition, including figures like Kizza Besigye and Bobi Wine, have faced constant harassment, arrest, and even violent suppression by the government. Besigye, a former ally of Museveni, has been imprisoned multiple times, while Bobi Wine, a rising star in Ugandan politics, was shot at and tear-gassed during the 2021 elections.
Family Dynasty: The Rise of Muhoozi Kainerugaba
Critics of Museveni now fear that his family may become entrenched in power. His son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the head of Uganda’s army, is seen by many as the presumptive heir to the presidency. Kainerugaba, who has publicly stated his intention to succeed his father, has amassed significant political influence, especially within Uganda’s military and security forces.
Museveni’s wife, Janet Museveni, holds a cabinet position as the education minister, further consolidating the family’s control. As Kainerugaba’s political ambitions grow, some Ugandans see the prospect of hereditary rule looming, with the president’s family cementing their grip on the country’s future.
Growing Opposition and the Military’s Influence
While Museveni’s government boasts relative stability, the rise of Kainerugaba and the continued suppression of opposition voices have led many to question Uganda’s democratic future. The military, which holds significant power in Uganda, is seen as a crucial factor in determining the country’s leadership after Museveni. As Kainerugaba asserts his influence, Uganda’s military rule seems increasingly inevitable.
Museveni’s Legacy: Stability or Tyranny?
Museveni’s supporters point to Uganda’s peaceful nature and refugee-hosting role in the region as proof of his success. Uganda is now the largest host of refugees in Africa, having once been a major exporter of refugees due to neighboring conflicts. Museveni also recently championed foreign investment, striking deals with China, the UK, and the UAE to foster Uganda’s economic growth. His government’s goal is for Uganda to become a middle-income country by 2040.
However, as the president ages, critics worry that Uganda is being transformed into a family-run fiefdom, diminishing prospects for genuine democratic change. The president’s continued reign, alongside his son’s rise, raises uncomfortable questions about the future of Uganda’s leadership—whether it will remain stability-focused or fall deeper into the grip of a military-backed dynasty.
With Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba positioning himself as the next president, many wonder whether the country will experience a peaceful transition of power—or continue under a system where the Museveni family dominates. Only time will tell if Uganda can break free from this longstanding political legacy or if it will remain under the thumb of the Museveni family for years to come.
