Uganda's Economic Performance in December 2025

Uganda’s Economic Performance in December 2025: Positive Momentum Continues

Uganda’s economy showed strong performance heading into December 2025, according to the Ministry of Finance’s Performance of the Economy report. Business confidence, stable inflation, and strong exports helped maintain this positive momentum.

Growth Indicators Show Positive Trends

Economic activity remained strong, supported by favorable demand. Key indicators like the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 53.8 in November to 54.0 in December 2025. A PMI above 50 signals expansion, showing continued growth in business output and new orders.

Similarly, the Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) increased from 180.41 in October to 181.48 in November 2025. These indicators highlight ongoing growth in Uganda’s economy.

Business Confidence Strengthened

The report highlights rising optimism among business operators and investors. The Business Tendency Index (BTI) rose from 56.20 in November to 57.20 in December 2025. This increase reflects growing confidence in the economy, further boosting Uganda’s economic prospects.

Stable Inflation and Price Stability

Inflation remained stable in December 2025, with the annual rate unchanged at 3.1 percent. This stability was mainly driven by a decrease in core inflation, especially in services. While food crop prices and Energy, Fuel, and Utilities (EFU) inflation rose, the moderation in core inflation offset these increases.

This stability benefits both consumers and businesses, providing predictability in prices and helping to maintain a favorable economic environment.

External Sector Resilience

The external sector performed well, with the Uganda shilling maintaining stability against the US dollar. In December 2025, the exchange rate stood at an average mid-rate of Shs 3,575.23 per dollar, almost unchanged from Shs 3,575.14 in November.

Uganda’s trade performance also showed improvement. The merchandise trade deficit narrowed by 32.4 percent, falling from USD 343.7 million in November 2024 to USD 232.3 million in November 2025. This improvement reflects the strong growth in exports.

Surge in Export Earnings

Uganda saw a notable increase in export earnings. In November 2025, export revenues surged by 70.4 percent, rising from USD 698.46 million to USD 1,190.51 million. This rise was mainly driven by strong exports of coffee and gold, which continue to play a significant role in Uganda’s foreign exchange earnings.

Outlook for Sustained Growth

Uganda’s economic outlook remains positive. With stable inflation, strong export performance, and growing business confidence, the country’s economy is set to maintain its upward momentum. The favorable conditions should sustain growth in the coming months.